prediction-market-oracle-research
Makes your agent research prediction markets as a data source. It helps understand probabilities and how to use this information.
What it does
This tool researches prediction markets (where people bet on future outcomes) to see if they can be used as a reliable information source for decision-making in products or dashboards. It analyzes what these markets suggest without giving investment advice.
When to use it
- ✓When considering using a prediction market to gauge the probability of an event.
- ✓When you want to compare what a prediction market says with other information sources.
- ✓If you need to understand the risks and quality of a prediction market as a data source.
Example of what to ask your AI
“Research the 'US Presidential Election 2024' prediction market to see if it can be a data source for a dashboard.”
Want more? Open the sections below.
How to use
The easiest way: copy the message below and paste it into Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor or any AI. It reads the skill and follows the instructions.
Skill link
Ready-to-paste message
How it works
The tool finds relevant markets, records their implied probabilities, and evaluates their quality (liquidity, etc.). It then compares this information with other sources and advises if the market is useful or not.
Installation
Easiest way: copy the skill link and paste it into Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor asking it to follow the instructions.
In the terminal (Claude Code, Codex, Cursor), in your project folder:
npx skills add affaan-m/ECC --skill prediction-market-oracle-researchOr download just the file:
curl -L https://raw.githubusercontent.com/affaan-m/ECC/main/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md -o SKILL.mdTechnical content (original SKILL.md)
Original text by the author, straight from GitHub.
Prediction Market Oracle Research
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run
llm-trading-agent-securitybefore granting any write authority.
Research Workflow
- Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
- Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
- Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
- Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
- Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
- Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.
Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
Output Contract
Use:
- decision context
- market sources
- signal quality
- comparison sources
- integration recommendation
- caveats
End with:
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
FAQ
What are prediction markets?
These are platforms where people can buy and sell 'contracts' that pay out if a specific event occurs. The price of these contracts reflects the probability participants assign to the event.
Can I use this to know where to invest my money?
No. This tool is for research and information analysis only. It does not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
What do 'liquidity' and 'spread' mean?
Liquidity is how easily a contract can be bought or sold without significantly affecting its price. Spread is the difference between the buying and selling price, which can indicate uncertainty or low liquidity.
Details
Original description by the author
Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice. Use when evaluating prediction markets as a data source or oracle signal for a product, agent, or dashboard.
repo: affaan-m/ECC
Popularity
- GitHub stars
- 280k
- Ranking position
- #257
- License
- MIT
- Updated
- 10/15/2026
Comments
- …
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